Being Stupid and Betting Against John Carmack

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Last Updated On: 2025-09-01 04:31:52 -0400

I’m going to do a risky thing here and bet against someone who is lauded as the best programmer in the world – John Carmack. In a recent AND OUTSTANDINGLY EXCELLENT YouTube interview with Lex Fridman, John Carmack made two predictions:

General purpose AI by 2030.
Self driving cars up to the Level 5 standard by 2030.

The 90 / 10 Rule

My reason for betting against the best programmer in the world is my experience as a software engineer and what is often known as the 90/10

When Did AI Start?

when john mccarthy wrote lisp

When Did Self Driving Cars Start?

darpa challenge